Viele, die sich derzeit an den Groupon-Zahlen abarbeiten, finden entweder das Geschäftsmodell an sich verwerflich und/oder haben sich noch nie mit Wachstumsunternehmen befasst. So kommen dann die berühmt-berüchtigten Groupon-Fiasko-Beiträge zustande.
Der vormalige Profi-Analyst Henry Blodget beschreibt in einem sehr lesenswerten Beitrag bei Business Insider, was in all diesen Einschätzungen zu kurz kommt ("HERE'S WHAT ALL THE GROUPON HATERS ARE MISSING: It's Cash-Flow Positive"):
"Amid all the bellyaching about how much money Groupon is losing and how bogus its "adjusted" accounting is and how outrageous it is that insiders have already cashed out while starving the company of cash, one fact has escaped notice.
Groupon is cash-flow positive.
What does that mean?
It means that, even though the company is "losing money" on its GAAP income statement (GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), it is generating cash from its business. And not from some bogus accounting trick, either."
Es lohnt sich, den kompletten Beitrag zu lesen. Dort kommt er zu diesem Fazit:
"The benefit of positive cash flow is that Groupon's operations can fund the company's growth even while the company is losing money.
Of course, the benefits of this positive "cash-cycle" won't last forever. When Groupon's growth slows, the cash that it has to deliver to the merchants that did Groupons last quarter will start to equal (or even exceed) the cash that Groupon collects from customers who buy Groupons this quarter, and the company's cash-flow statement will look more like its income statement.
(Amazon went through this transition, too, and it can be a painful one.)
In other words, at some point, unless/until it turns profitable on an income statement basis, Groupon will have a cash hole to fill. And the only way it can sustain its positive cash flow while losing money on the income statement is to keep growing rapidly. If the growth stalls before the company turns profitable, cash flow will turn sharply negative.
But, for now, even though Groupon is "losing money," it is generating cash. And it can use this cash to fund operations and growth."
Es wird also spannend zu sehen, ob und wie Groupon die Kurve kriegt und wo sich die (Wieder-)Bestellraten am Ende einpendeln:
- Groupon IPO: Erkenntnisse aus den Geschäftsunterlagen
- Groupon und die unwürdige Debatte um den Börsengang
- Groupon IPO: Die besten Einschätzungen zum Börsengang
- Groupon IPO: Wie entwickeln sich die Umsätze für Berlin?
- Groupon IPO: CityDeal wurde 2010 für $126 Mio. übernommen
- Groupon IPO: Groupon legt seine Geschäftszahlen offen